Over the last few weeks, I have done an enormous amount of research for class, the school newspaper, career development, and personal curiosity. As a result, my insatiable desire for knowledge and the application of it has led me to itch for school to be over with and summer to be here. Following is a sort of summary of what I have learned and what I plan to do about it.
First, I have been particularly interested in the state of the Armed Forces, both as a result of a solidification of my political views, my study of American Military History, and my pursuit of the study of applicable politico-military history in relation to the United States today and the solving of its problems. This study has also been a consequence of my decision to become a politician after my future career in the Air Force. My belief is that knowledge is truth (more on this philosophy later).
I have discovered that the operational costs of long-term military commitments have led to a significant decline in military preparedness. Budget allocations are one primary reason for this. In order to pay for such operations with limited funding, the Armed Forces have to reallocate funding from long-term investments to meet short-term needs. Such has been the case in both the Army and the Air Force. Both services have reallocated funds from procurement (the obtainment of new products), research and development, and training to support operations costs including combat/incentive pay, fuel usage, dropping bombs, etc. Examples of long-term side effects are unfortunately numerous: the significant increase in average aircraft age in the Air Force, the increasing number of accidents (due in my opinion to reduced training), the lack of spare parts and armor in the Army, the lack of a single fully-ready and deployable combat brigade, rising concerns of stress levels, etc, etc, etc. These examples are only the tip of the iceberg. Over the summer, I plan to do more research and write an article for the Air Force Association magazine, if they will accept it.
Secondly, I have also been having increasing interest in emerging superpowers. I have always been interested in clashes between superpowers. Military-fiction/techno-thrillers were a key staple of my youth and continue to be. The recent version of warfare consisting of counter-insurgencies and special forces just has not been "sexy" enough for my liking. So, partially out of interest, and largely because of a growing sense of worry, I have been researching the likes of emerging superpowers, in particular China. For my 20th Century Intelligence Gathering class, I had to develop a presentation based on a fictional intelligence operation involving a major power during the 20th century. For a variety of reasons, I chose a conflict between the People's Republic of China (as opposed to the Republic of China, otherwise known as Taiwan) and the United States. Anyway, the short version of the story is that China is a dormant, but blooming, military and economic threat flying under the radar. Polls have shown that China is 4th on Americans' list of most dangerous adversaries.
Despite the public's lack of concern, China is host to numerous statistics that point to its future, if not current, threat to the United States. China's military budget has increased by double digits every year since the end of the Cold War except 1994. They have significantly increased their offensive cruise missile and bomber arsenal. They have aggressively pursued research and development and currently rival the United States in many areas. They can shoot down our satellites, and they are considered the world's leader in cyber warfare. Economically, they currently have the fourth largest economy in the world and are quickly rising through the ranks. Unemployment dropped from near 50% in 1981 to 8% today. Etc, etc, etc. I could go on and on. Everything points to an increasingly volatile China.
Moreover, the advancement of China has conversely seen the decline of the United States. Despite my extreme patriotism for my country, the outlook for the U.S. is grim if it continues on its current path. The decline of the U.S dollar since World War II; the increasing trend of reduced military spending coupled with increased military entanglements and peacekeeping operations; the rise in entitlement spending such as health care, social security, and Medicaid; declining moral and family values; and increasing fiscal irresponsibility. David Walker, the former head of the Government Accountability Office, has compared the United States to the Roman Empire in its decline. Numerous statistics and signs contribute to such a conclusion, but this topic will be expanded upon in a later article/blogpost.
China is not alone in its emerging superpower status. Russia's economy is booming, military spending has significantly increased under Putin, and they have been pursuing many aggressive policies. Other rising superpowers include India, Brazil, and the combined power of the European Union. The short establishment of a uni-polar world (one superpower) is quickly fading to that of a very multi-polar one. One that could lead to tumultuous times, yet one which would be very intriguing for a military fiction fan like me. In all seriousness, though, this is in my opinion very near to happening. Not to present a negative or positive connotation of such a world; I just think we need to be aware of such a new global environment and should prepare for such an eventuality. Imagine a world in which the U.S, China, Russia, the European Union, India, and Brazil all are major power with near equal resources and strengths competing for dominance in the world. The idea is both terrifying and exciting at the same time.
Such are my rantings about my research and things I have learned and been speculating on. I can't wait to dig down and start flipping pages and pounding away at the keyboard this summer. This stuff makes for a good novel, which reminds me as to another reason I have been so speculative. Tom Clancy, recently came out with a novel based on an upcoming computer real-time strategy game called EndWar that is being developed based on a plot of World War III in the near future. There are three real-time strategy games I plan to pursue this summer: Dale Brown's Act of War, Larry Brown's World in Flames, and Tom Clancy's EndWar. When will I possibly find time for a game of Risk or Axis and Allies?
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